Both houses of the Republican-controlled Legislature on Tuesday approved legislative districts drafted by Gov. Tony Evers as a solution for new election maps, hoping to end the involvement of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
The roller coaster of legislative redistricting had at least one more twist, however — many Democrats opposed enacting the maps, even though they were offered by a Democratic governor, because they want the issue to remain in the hands of the liberal majority on the Supreme Court.
The state’s highest court sent shockwaves across Wisconsin when the justices struck down the maps shortly before Christmas. New lines could change the balance of power in the Legislature and determine which Wisconsin issues could get funding and result in changes in state law.
The current district borders have given Republicans a clear advantage for years in elections for state Assembly and Senate seats. As a result, the GOP has held majorities in both houses of the Legislature since 2011, even while Democrats have won a number of statewide races.
Everyone involved in a lawsuit that landed redistricting in front of the Supreme Court submitted their own maps, in hopes that the justices would choose them.
There is a sense among Republicans, however, that Evers’ maps might not be as damaging to their party’s chances of maintaining a majority in the Legislature as other proposals under consideration.
Two maps offered by Republican legislators and a conservative legal group were dismissed by two state Supreme Court-appointed consultants as “partisan gerrymanders.” That made it highly unlikely the justices would pick those maps if the Supreme Court makes the final call.
Evers told WISN-TV 12 on Sunday that he had “great doubts” that Republicans would be able to muster the needed support to pass his maps. If they did so, the governor said, “of course” he would sign them.
But Democrats opposed the idea, arguing Republicans played fast-and-loose with the committee process.
Sen. Mark Spreitzer, D-Beloit, also said it is unclear which lines should be used to fill an open state Senate seat, as well as a potential recall election for Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester.
"What are you hiding from the public for?" said Sen. Mark Spreitzer, D-Beloit.
Suspicions of a legal plot
Some have also suggested that Republicans might be plotting a last ditch legal strategy to neutralize new maps — the ones they themselves approved Tuesday — by potentially taking the matter to federal court in search of a more favorable set of judges.
"Forgive me for speculating because this has been happening repeatedly for the last 14 years," said Sen. Chris Larson, D-Milwaukee. "(Republicans) will make every attempt after this has passed to continue to try and prevent the public from actually being represented in this legislative body and in the state Assembly."
Still, a federal court challenge to new lines could occur no matter how they are enacted.
"If the governor's maps were passed, that wouldn’t be the end of the road,” said Robert Yablon, co-director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Law School’s State Democracy Research Initiative. “There could be further legal proceedings, even if it's not clear that those further proceedings would have a ton of legal merit.”
GOP legislative leaders have argued they have no nefarious plot. Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, R-Oostburg, said the move was to "step up and stop this sham litigation."
"Given the circumstances, the Legislature is faced with two choices: Either pass the governor’s maps as is or allow the liberal majority of the Wisconsin Supreme Court to gerrymander the state at the very last minute without public input," LeMahieu said on the Senate floor.
Still, Justin Levitt, a constitutional law expert and professor at Loyola Marymount University, noted that conceding ground to Evers is not typically in the playbook of Republican legislative leaders in Wisconsin.
“It didn’t seem to be the Legislature’s style to say ‘All right, you win,'” he said. “Even if all the motivation is to save their own behinds, even if they are staring down a potentially worse lawsuit in the courts.”
Vos dismissed the idea that his party is planning a legal maneuver, saying at a press conference on Tuesday that he is "supremely confident" that Evers' lines will be in place in November "whether I like it or not."
"I think what they're saying is kind of a Hail Mary because they want to have a more aggressive Democratic gerrymander than the one we're potentially gonna take up," Vos said.
Even some attorneys involved in the case have been skeptical that there is anything to these theories.
“People really think that if the GOP-controlled Legislature and Democratic governor agree on legislation adopting new districts that a federal court challenge will undo that? On what theory?” said Douglas Poland, one of the attorneys who brought the challenge to the old maps, on social media. “It sounds like someone doesn’t want to end the litigation.”
Some Republicans vote no, some Democrats yes
Not all Republicans were on board with the notion of passing Evers’ maps, however.
In the Senate, five GOP lawmakers joined almost all Democrats in opposing the lines.
"I don’t like this bill, I don’t like what we’re doing here today," Sen. Julian Bradley of Franklin, one of the dissenting Republicans, said on the Senate floor. "I think it is already settled. I think we have a duty and a responsibility, and we did that."
Sen. Robert Wirch, D-Somers, was the lone Democratic senator to vote for the maps. Rep. Sylvia Ortiz-Velez, D-Milwaukee, also voted for the proposal in the Assembly.
Wirch told the Cap Times that he felt lines proposed by his Senate Democratic colleagues to the court were "terrible" for his area and that he would rather not roll the dice on how the justices might ultimately rule.
"I'd rather have a bird in hand than two or three birds in the bush over here," Wirch said. "What could happen in the courts, it could blow up in our face and we can get some lousy maps."
The new districts would pit nearly two dozen pairs of incumbent Republican together in the same district, meaning lawmakers will either have to move or face off in a competitive primary election.
Lawmakers attempted to amend Evers’ maps last month to change that but the governor vetoed the idea, arguing they were not his maps and were overly protective of incumbents.
Under Evers' maps, Democrats could control the Senate and Assembly if they performed as well as the governor did in his re-election win in 2022.
If the results were more like the performance of Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson in that same year, Republicans would narrowly control the Assembly 51-48 and the Senate 17-16. Republicans currently have a 64-35 majority in the Assembly and a 22-11 majority in the Senate.
