Weather forecasters are closely watching a strengthening El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean that could play a major role in shaping this upcoming winter. El Niño, which is a climate pattern that occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal which changes global weather patterns around the world by increased rainfall in some regions, drought in others,and unusual shifts in typical temperatures everywhere. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center indicates that this El Niño is expected to remain unusually strong through the winter months, increasing the chance of wide ranging weather impacts across much of North America. 

For Southern Wisconsin, we will most likely have a winter that will trend milder than average. Historically, when a strong El Niño happens it tends to move the jet stream which sends warmer temperatures across much of the northern United States, including the Upper Midwest. While cold snaps and snowstorms will still occur, long periods of extreme cold will be less frequent than the typical Wisconsin winter.

A warmer winter can reduce overall snowfall totals that Wisconsin will receive since more winter precipitation will fall as rain, especially during the early and late parts of the season. However, El Niño does not eliminate the possibility of significant snowstorms. Southern Wisconsin could still experience major winter weather events when storm systems track across the Midwest and encounters sufficiently cold air. 

Another potential consequence is increased variability. We may experience rapid swings between spring-like warmth and brief intervals of frigid cold. This can create challenges for road maintenance, winter recreation, and agriculture with these freeze-thaw cycles..

So bundle up, winter will be here before we know it, but hopefully the heavy parkas will stay in the closet for most of the winter.

Submitted by Park,Scott on October 22, 2026

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